The global crisis has subverted all the financial weights and deeply upset the economy. But the prediction that the Brics would surpass the GDP of the richest nations in 2040 is still valid. Brics countries' growth was not arrested by the events of the crisis and what followed. The growing importance of emerging economies has had a number of statements not only from a economic point of view, but also political, especially in recent months. During the G20 of Pittsburg in September 24th 2009 had been granted greater voting power of Brics in the IMF, an increase of 5%, but during the annual meetings in Istanbul in October 4th 2009 the Brazilian minister of economy Mantega said: "Five percent is the minimum. We decided to continue fighting for 7 percent" and he also said: "We still think we are under represented."  [Source: Reuters, Istanbul, October 4, 2009, Axel Bugge].

This stance supports our thesis because it means firstly, the growing awareness of Brics about their financial value in the world, secondly full confidence in their ability to respond to the crisis. Except for Russia, which has proved to be more heavily affected by the crisis (perhaps because of its more mature economy), the other Brics countries are confirming an economic progress. This confidence is further enhanced by the position of other advanced countries, ready to jump on the "brics train" to find a way out of the crisis.

[Source: World economic outlook update, January 2010, pagina 2]

The country that excels over others is Brazil. As shown in an article published by the Interprofessional Network site Italcam (Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture Italian-Brazilian ) on 24/02/2010 although Brazil was one of the last countries hit by the crisis, was also faster in getting out through a series of remedies adopted quickly to address the delicate international situation. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development affirms that the forecasts of growth of the Brazilian economy for 2010 will be an encouraging +3.5%. The reason for this growth can be identified in the government's ability to launch a series of timely action at the first signs of crisis by cutting taxes and increasing government spending. Added to this is the fact that Brazil has diversified its production (think the reforms that have enabled it to move from an agricultural economy based on coffee production to a more mature and diversified economy with industries, investment in telecommunications, large exports raw materials etc) and become a beacon for foreign investment.

[Source: World Economic and Financial Surveys, Economic Outlook October 2009 Sustaining the Recovery p. 85]

China after a downturn, has begun to grow again, +9% in 2009 which should further increase by one point in 2010. The reasons for this success lie in the recovery of the electronics industry, which suffered a setback in the early moments of crisis, e also in the strength of domestic consumption that has been able to compensate for the sharp drop in external demand and hence exports . Using internal capital China can self support part of the growth, and like in Brazil, adopting tax policies permitted to avoid harshest consequences.

In India, the situation seems positive with an indication of growth in 2010 amounted to more than 7%. Although the country remains characterized by an extreme gap between rich and poor, the economy following the reforms of previous decades has been able to cope with the global crisis. The reasons are to be found mainly in the fact that one of the anchors of the production is the services sector, the least affected by the fluctuation of the market, indeed one of the areas to bet on in times of economic difficulty due to its nature: services are always useful, necessary and important.

[Source: World Economic and Financial Surveys, Economic Outlook October 2009 Sustaining the Recovery p. 74]

The same route cannot be used by Russia. Between the Brics Russia is the country that has suffered most of the crisis in 2009, registering a negative peak of -7.5%. This situation is intended to heal as planned during 2010. The reasons for this behaviour lie in the inadequacy of internal reforms, lack of social mobility and an inadequate social safety net, in failure of justice and the persistence of oligarchic power in the system that do not help to maintain a steady confidence in the system.

These issues are also considered together with other factors (devaluation of Ruble, inflation). In 2010, Russia has inherited a severe contraction of foreign investment but also domestic consumption (which instead has been the engine of China and Brazil). Russia actually for not going back, can only base its strategy on it’s strategic production. One can not speak of an irreversible crisis, but certainly an instability of the country that will lead to a forced change of direction by the government.

[Source: World Economic and Financial Surveys, Economic Outlook October 2009 Sustaining the Recovery p. 81]

Even in the face of this crisis we can find countries "outsider" who does not belong to the acronym coined by O'Neill "Brics": other emerging countries will be the next driving forces of investments and global economy. Someone has called them "Stim" (Sudafica, Turkey, Indonesia and Mexico), [Source: Micaela Cappellini, Sole 24 Ore], other [Euromonitor International "New Frontiers: strategy briefing on the next emerging economies"] has indicated also: Argentina, Poland.

Whatever the composition of the new emerging economies, the challenge is now open and poses serious questions for the old continent: what role Europe can play in front of this great game?

 TB finanzastraordinaria.it 17/03/2010